THE FALL 2016 GREAT LAKES CRYSTAL BALL- A NEW ERA COMING!- PART I- SALMON

    ( northern Michigan Atlantic salmon on the streamer/intruder aggressive swing-Russia/ Quebec without the price tag and travel hassles-2016 should be an amazing year!)

 SO !!!!... every August I try to give a fair and balanced look at what the Great Lakes salmon/steelhead/trout experience might look like being on the water 300 days a year and having spent considerable time writing books and guiding for steelhead/salmon and trout 365 through all our wonderfully different four seasons.

I have seen 'MASSIVE CHANGES' -especially in the last 5 years! Mostly from global climate change wreaking havoc on the run timing /duration /numbers and what is now the "new normal of abnormal". Droughts and heat waves like this year, only to now produce flooding rains, extremely cold winters and two past summers of abnormally cold summers are confusing the fish, biologists and fishermen/women more than ever before. 

Just try to imagine being a Great Lakes guide , who wakes up everyday telling clients, " we need water...we have no water...water temps are too hot....water temps are too cold!..."...blah,blah, on and on the uncertainty and misery effects all in the process.

Not to mention the ever changing bio dynamics of the forage base: no alewives in one report, another report says, " that's bullshit, there is tons of alweives!"....we are seeing mysis shrimp take over systems and cisco/smelt/sculpins/bloater chubs/sticklebacks/perch replace preferred alewives .  Here is my predictions and remember " you can't catch fish sitting on the couch watching CNN/MSNBC/FOX talk about the 'Hillary/Trump shit show'- get your ass on a river and enjoy!The only thing that will save you from that nightmare mess is delving into the wonderful natural world we still are privileged to have and partake in.

PACIFIC SALMON/CHINOOK AND COHO

(Muskegon wild king)

( St. Joseph river silver coho)

As I write this, we are already seeing  pacific salmon entering the Lake Michigan tributaries from Trail Creek in Indiana, the St. Joe to all the 'century circle' river jewels of the Muskegon, Manistee, Pere Marquette White etc. This kind of makes 'no sense', since we had a blistering hot summer with no water and very , very few off shore wind 'lake-turnovers of cold shoreline water'.. But we always get early runners in late July /August and I have seen coho while guiding summer steelhead on the St. Joe as early as two weeks ago( we hit a really chrome coho dripping scales on Tuesday of this week).

The last wave of severe storms brought good amounts of water to the rivers in the past week ( as much as 12 inches in the Niles/Berrien Springs area- A week ago I could walk across the whole river knee deep like I have never seen it that low in 20 years- and now flood stage!!!- that is the absurdity of it all !

Charter boat activity has been steady all summer out on the big lake and decent and nice sized catches of coho and kings/steelhead have been going on which is a" damn good sign' for the fall salmon run!- much better prognosis than last year when there was the worst return of king and coho salmon to the historic Pere Marquette and Manistee systems EVER!!!

The good news for us on the Muskegon was we had a very strong run of wild kings last year- 10  times better than the other river systems- THAT'S A FACT!, and I'm not just tooting my own horn!

Many 'negative-ites' will say ( btw. , so much negativity/PC crap these days- sorry just my take!) ..." awe,... that is just Supinski pimping his biz". My reasoning for the massive wild runs of salmon the Muskegon produced is due to the mind boggling amount of spawning gravel this river has-almost 80% of the whole river is spawning gravel verses other rivers like P.M./Manistee etc. where silt/sand and logs predominate the river  bottom strata. Also, the Muskegon 'midge/diptera" hatches have gone through the roof!- and sky rocketed , (which btw this is the preferred food of salmon fry/parr before they leave and smolt). Very old estimates ( early 2000-2007) sonic wave density studies of salmon smolting migration on the Muskegon/Maple Island Bridge by Dr. Ed Rutherford et. al. and the Great Lakes Institute out of Muskegon estimated the Big Muskegon produced roughly 1.5 million salmon smolts a year)

Also, the Great Lakes charter fleets operating out of the port of Muskegon is way down to non-existent and 'nowhere near the numbers of harvesting charter fleets operating out of Ludington and Manistee- numerical fact. 

Another possibility that KING salmon foraging behavior has recently seen more diversity to other baitfish/prey/gobies/shrimp like steelhead and browns/lakers feed on, can be taking place but there are no studies to support only local gossip/rumors.

If there is a very bright spot for Great Lakes pacific salmon it is the Coho silvers. Since they are (65/35  % vertebrate/invertebrate) mixed feeders on a multitude of baitfish prey/insects etc. like steelhead and browns. The massive and unpredicted  increase in "mysis shrimp- once thought to be almost extinct in the G.L. ), now due to lack of predation by alewives, could become their preferred food source. The one I harvested from the  St. Joe several weeks ago had 'blood red pomegranate flesh' like an Alaskan sockeye/silver ( due to crustacean feeding) and was one of the best tasting salmon I have ever had on the grill- being a former chef I am very, very discriminating on fish quality and taste..fyi!

Reports from Lake Ontario is that the kings there have been running very large, their alewife  numbers are 'way-up!'  and the Ontario tribs should see much better returns than last year if they get more 'WATER-H2O-COOLER TEMPS'- which they are suffering from- the global climate change gig!

PREDICTION: I believe you will see better numbers of fish this year on all the rivers  based on the lake catches and very light charter activity-  it could be lowest numbers of  salmon harvested in decades and the fact that good Chinook returns took place to smaller Trail Creek two days ago on the extreme southern end of the lake. Besides, it couldn't get any worse than last year and remember one 'stick in your eye fact'- you can't have returning salmon if the charter fleet decimated them for 'Team Igloo/Yeti " in the summer like in previous years...just say'in ! I think the Coho returns should be the most noticeable based on the changing forage base which is to their favor.

MICHIGAN ATLANTIC SALMON

In my humble opinion, the most exciting component of  the ever evolving Great Lakes salmonid experience is the increasing abundance and potential Atlantic salmon have in Michigan and New York's inland lakes, Lake Huron and Lake Ontario. They have always been the 'apple of my eye' since I experienced my first Atlantic on a big heavy Hardy spey rod my uncle had as a boy on a Polish river that ran into the Baltic. The St Mary's success story started by Roger Greil of Lake Superior State, which spread its success to me and my client 'STILL' holding the world IGFA record (26 pounds)  taken from a  place dear to my heart- Torch Lake, is still evolving favorably and can only get better with the changing biomass I mentioned earlier. The Lake Huron stocking is now being evaluated by the DNR, and the fact that the Michigan DNR Platte hatchery can now grow them with much success and efficiency are all positives for this program.

 Lake Ontario has already seen natural reproduction on the N.Y. Salmon river and Ontario's Credit River. But their chinook populations remain stronger and could be a deterrent to further salar production. I still believe New York and Ontario are using inferior strains of atlantic salmon and they can take notes on Greil's success. Lakes Huron and Michigan are the potential future for these fish if the chinook king population continues to be fragile and uncertain.

PREDICTION: ONLY GOING TO GET BETTER AND MAY BE THE FUTURE!- THAT WOULD BE NICE FOR FLY SWINGERS FOR SURE!

NOTES AND EVENTS: I will be doing 'Selectivity Clinics- Classroom/Tying/On stream 'boots in water' programs on tailwaters, spring creeks and steelhead in the coming weeks- would love to have you attend!

 *Delaware River Club - Labor Day weekend- Sept. 3rd and 4th...here is link below and to sign up and register-  the hatch master, Al Caucci will make a special appearance

http://thedelawareriverclub.com/events/

* Tulpehocken Creek Outfitters-TCO- Pennsylvania- September 16/17/18 ( more info to come)- State College, Bryn Mawr ( Philadelphia), and Boiling Springs ( Yellow Breeches)- spring creeks and steelhead- Sept. 

WE STILL HAVE GREAT LODGING AND GUIDING DATES AVAILABLE FOR THIS FALL!- LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING YOU AT THE GRAY DRAKE!- OUR POOLS ARE THE HEART OF THE MUSKEGON SALMON RUN!

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Posted in: coho salmon , gray drake lodge , Great Lakes atlantic salmon , great lakes king salmon , matt supinski , muskegon fly fishing , muskegon river , muskegon salmon , Selectivity book

Amazing Michigan weather....Everything is Bustin Loose- So many choices !

God what amazing weather..daytime highs in the upper 50's/low 60F...cloud cover- polar fleece in August!,,,these guys are loving it! The plethora offering of Michigan is amazing at this time of year and gets better by the day!

DRY FLY TROUT: Hatches are exploding at dusk on the Muskegon: tiny pseudo BWOS, midges, caddis a few steno Cahill's...saw two fall Isonychia that were eaten immediately by a husky brownie(sadleri)- swallows working hard last night. Water levels perfect and cooling down nicely on Muskegon and Manistee tailwaters!....the wild strain spring Gilchrist browns stocked are getting fat eating caddis, midges and water daphnia/scuds from the tailwater-couldn't be better!  HINT:...The trout are now in the shallowest flats and vegetation-where are the bugs are! - SAW SOME HOG BROWNS ROOTING THE SHALLOW VEGETAION RIGHT ON THE SHORELINES LAST NIGHT IN LESS THAN A FOOT OF WATER!...
Pere Marquette mousing/night Ptery time stone game still on...terrestrials and tricos daytime
White , Bigalow/Penoyer  creeks wild brookies starting to get fall spawning color and sipping terrestrials/tricos- caddis at dark. We have thousands of miles of blue ribbon tiny trout streams that nobody fishes!....NOW! is the time to fish them before the season closes. Fish are aggressive/a packing on the weight before the spawn. We tend to place to much attention on the bigger rivers- these small stream fish are starving for attention!

SUMMER SKAMANIA STEELHEAD/SALMON - yes!...better two months late than never, the summer runs are just making a big push on the St .Joe and Manistee...doesn't get better since everyone gave up on them!.cohos soon to come!
Big fat chrome kings are being taken in lower Pere Marquette by the crank thunder crew!..few have come into the Muskegon and are heading for deep poolville!...looking very healthy!

EVENTS/MEDIA

*ANN ARBOR TROUT UNLIMITED: I'll be their speaker on September 14th..hope to see you there!
*NOMAD ANGLERS, ROCHESTER PAINT CREEK SELECTIVITY CLINIC- SEPT 19TH-PAINT CREEK FLY FESTIVAL -SEPT 18.....Hope to see you there!..still spots available- call Nomad Anglers- Rochester Hills, Michigan

* FLY FISHERMAN MAGAZINE-My spring creek (PFP) predator foraging profile with some of my cool new /effective patterns  for those chalk stream trout bums will be on newsstands in September

GREG SENYO'S NEW/FIRST BOOK Release/Signing at Schultz Outfitters- don't miss it!-Sept 8th- I was honored that Greg asked me to do the forward!

..DOW ticker tape and the political circus  got you down? ...don't worry- go fish, get invigorated and be happy!...hope to see you - still have some good dates available!...cheers/na zdrowie!...
yours truly, 
Matt/Mieczyslaw

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Posted in: gray drake lodge , great lakes king salmon , michigan fly fishing , MICHIGAN SALMON , michigan steelhead , muskegon river , muskegon river hatches , steelhead , summer skamania steelhead

got rain?...FINALLY!...SPRING CREEK SUMMER STEELHEAD....NEW YORK'S WILD TROUT MECCA

( Tom Terrry from Chicago with his fisrt summer run fun which jumped into a tree on its first leap from an Indiana spring creek on a pink scud last weekend)

( Client Dave Richardson from Virginia and his first summer Skamania steelhead- also...great to see water flowing again!)

So sorry!...for the long delay in posting. As you are well aware we have been in the grip of the worst drought and heat wave in a century.The whole country is dealing with it but I'm glad to say we are over the hump with the big storms we had the last two days and cooler weather coming.Laurie, Peter and I  spent the first two weeks of July at our family's summer home in the magnificant Catskill mountains of  of New York- a wild trout mecca! The ice cold tailwaters of the Delaware and Neversink, with their deep mountain ice cold reservoirs with several hundred feet deep bottom draws made these rivers ice cold. Air temps were hitting the 100 F  range and both the West and East Branch and the Neversink upper tailwaters were 42 degrees.

( view from our families place in the Catskills)

( The amazing Neversink River of New York- a fusion river: mountain freestoner, spring creek and ice cold tailwater all in one....PLUS!.... the birthplace of American Fly fishing....Theodore Gordon/Hewitt and La Branche...this is Americas 'ground zero' of fly fishing...above a wild Neversink brown, the spring creek like waters and the steep falls at Fallsburg)

I spent each day chest deep and chilly, watching wild brown trout sipping sulphers, olives and stenos in the middle of the afternoon as the waters warmed to the prefered low 50F range. Their fisheries are managed for wild brown, rainbow and brook trout which are splendidly colored and fight like mad....also ultra super selective .

( Angler chest deep on the West Branch....44F water...air temp 95F...tailwater fog)

( West Branch sulpher sipper..."drive by style".... only my guide/friend/sansai/trout coon dog, and Catskill trout master...Johnny"Miller Time" Miller can figure out...he has finally figured out how to crack these big selective/reflective sippers feed...incredible habituation behaviour is taking place here on these extremelly "hammered to death" fish...since this river was the only fishable place on the east coast!...except for spring creeks.)

 On the way back, I got to stop by my childhood wild trout classroom...the Wiscoy Creek in the

 southern tier Allegheny mountains. I fished here last 31 years ago when I lived in Niagara Falls and it is here I learned of the selective cunning nature of its exclusive wild brown trout.

( Wiscoy terrestrials..."da box")

( I love bohvines...if you talk to them like puppys they follow you all day...my pals!)

( New York does an amazing job of public access and wild trout management)

 It is a cow pasture spring creek/freestoner that runs through Wyoming County- "little Switzerland' of western New York. The water levels in all the New York streams were very low due to the drought but things gave changed with the rains.

( Pota mayfly shuck)

( Peter walking the Wiscoy Crekk Falls...we stayed at the Wiscoy Creek Lodge...a spectacular log cabin...go to their web site...big thumbs up!!!!!!... a true forest setting an hour and half south of Buffalo)

AND NOW!....after many prayers answered the rains have come and my pursuit of summer steelhead  with my clients from all over the nation could not have come at a better time. The "Skamania Alley' of Michigan/Indiana got anywhere between 2-4 inches of rain with the storms depending on location....the mother load of summer runs are yet to come!.

The St. Joseph remains too warm for fish yet but will change. I'm concentrating on smaller spring creeks and some private new water I've obtained. Those creeks are icy and have good flows now.
Muskegon Report. It got really brutal in early July- so did all the blue ribbon wild trout waters of Michigan's PM/Au Sable where water temps hit 70's...that's all changing.
The Muskegon bubbler only had so much cooler water and the cooler nights and lower daytime temps will gradually get things back to normal...if normal exists anymore! The trout are concentrated in the deeper pools andfast shallow riffles due to the river hitting a brutal low and hot 797 cfs...now 1,090 after it hit 1800 cfs after the storms. They are sipping #26 olive rusty spinners in the mornings and evenings and the tiny green caddis is starting up. The rocks are covered with cinnamon and green caddis larvae/pupae and the rest of the summer thru October should see massive caddis hatches. Their has been no trout die offs noticed and the trout that are caught are still fat and healthy despite the heat from the caddis pupae...please exercise extreme caution when fishing till temperatures cool further!!!
 Heard reports of summer king salmon coming in Litle and Big Man and PM Lake.
 I think we are over the heat hump and more storms and showers are predicted even though temps will climb again... the rain buffer is the key!....Cheers!

( high water Skamie box...some of Greg Senyo's masta egg eating minnows...and more master Senyo creations...a monument will be built to this Great Lakes steelhead flyt tyer....all of us are humbled next to him!...no blowing smoke!)

STILL HAVE SOME OPEN DATES FOR SUMMER SKAMANIA STEELHEAD AND THE "SUMMER TROUT EVENING SIPPER SPECIALS" THAT WILL LAST TILL OCTOBER!....SEE YOU ON THE RIVER!

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Posted in: gray drake , Greg Senyo , Indiana Skamania , muskegon river , Neversink , New York wild trout , skamania steelhead , summer steelhead , terrestrial insects , trout and eagle , WEST BRANCH DELAWARE , Wiscoy Creek

SULPHER CITY, SCULPINS....the "CEREBRAL GOURMET".....AND THE BROWN TROUT "TOAD" GALLERY!

( Guide Jeff Bacon with a "ginormous 'brown-it's good to know that gene pool contributor is still swimming for this fall if it can dodge the rapalas and worm dunkers. A perefect Ephemerella Invaria - sulpher- above by John Miller......you can click on images for clower detail )

Cold nights, cool nights, hot days, cool days, massive thunder storms....what a roll of the weather!.............BUT GOOD NEWS!....the trout are starting to look -up at the surface with a passion!

( Dr. Mike Davison with a pair of nice browns on the sulpher emerger Saturday)

 The suckers are pretty much all spawned out, so all the trout are cruising looking for chinook parr and steelhead fry that just hatched and the mayflies and caddis. Last 5 nights we had lots of sulphers, American March Browns, Blue wings, caddis and gray drakes trying to get going but the weather has been their detriment....early June like customary should be their peak along with Isonychias.

( The famed Roman Moser of Austria, who contributed to my "SELECTIVITY" book at the publishers Stackpole Books, here are his 3-D Plush Sculpins that are lethal on aggressive big trout!)

 Had the distinct pleasure of guiding Dr. Mike Davison, a trout'aholic, this weekend and Mike got some nice fat browns on the sulpher emergers. Jeff Bacon with clients hit an absolute "hog' brown like Jeff always does every May......he's a toad sniffer!

( another late night sulpher sipper and a rainbow parr chinook fry and Abel brown trout reel- below the river is loaded to the gills with chinook parr and an easy imitationn)

( The grouse hen is back terrorizing all that come- she builds her nest near our driveway and chases all the cars daily protecting her little ones)

( Boy did they stock the Muskegon this year.....just got the numbers from DNR Gary Whelan- head of hatcheries.........staggering #'s......90,000 Eagle Lake Rainbows, 60,000 Wild Rose Brown trout in Newaygo...........30,000 browns at Muskegon Harbor, and 66,000 steelhead at Pine St........plus all the natural reproduction we are having with the cold water bubbler....YIKES!....that's a ton of trout!)

( wild steelhead- 3-4 inchers Jeff and I picked up all spring....Bacon got one two days ago swinging wets...the stockers are 8-9 inches and silver-fin clipped some)

Swinging soft hackle wets and sculpins on sink-tips have been productive. Waiting for a good spinner fall of gray drakes with stable weather. Had a good spinner fall with Dr. Mike as we did split days on the water ....dawn to dusk , with break in the afternoon.
                                                             
CULINARY CORNER AND NEWS BITES!!!!

 Check out our NEW HATCH MATCHERS SPECIAL ON OUR MAIN PAGE TICKER TAPE!
Water at perfect dry fly level...1960 CFS and perfect hatch mayfly hatching temps......CHEERS!
So this week's cooking had to do with good old fashioned Polish cuisines, Spring Rack of Lamb, fresh clams and scallops and beef carpaccio.....raw beef with garlic and goat's cheese.....DELISH!

( BACK IN POLAND AGAIN!....Dr. Mike got fresh Frank's Market Polish sausage from Grand Rapids- grilled and basted in beer, Polish sweet and sour sauerkraut with caraway seeds and good old fashioned potato pancakes....add some hot Dusseldorf er mustard and you got a feast!

( don't forget all the great Michigan asparagus we have now....marinade them in olive oil, lightly crisp on grill, add balsamic vinegar and Swedish sea salt....awesome!

( and now.....an episode of the "CEREBRAL GOURMET".....lol. Last Wednesday I had the two big hitter Ford execs.- Ed and Randy. Ed is an aspiring chef and sometimes he would rather cook on the boat with the Weber than fish....he did an amazing Rack of Lamb chops on the grill.....Ed is not the most articulate guy or politically correct....excuse the crass use of a certain word....Ed did not know he was being filmed by my ever ready i phone which I'm having a blast with....GO ED!......you won't see the "Cerebral Gourmet" coming to the Cooking Channel anytime soon.....LOL!)

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Posted in: American March Browns , blue-winged-olive , caddis , gray drake , isonychia , michigan fly fishing , monster brown trout , muskegon river , sulphers , trout and eagle