Thursday, May 27, 2010

WHERE ARE ALL THE GRAY DRAKES????...........CONFUSED?..........DON'T WORRY -THEY ARE COMING!

( We are ready when you are, sir or miss! After last year's record gray drake hatch, it has got to happen eventually!-BUG DOCTOR JOHN MILLER IMAGE)

The last few nights since Sunday when the heat wave started-(low 90 F temps) REALLY SHUT DOWN THE HATCHES-BIG TIME! A few caddis and sulphers-some cahills were around in small numbers, but that is typical when very quick changes in weather occur-also quick water level fluctuations. With last weekend's rain, we went from 2,000 cfs down to 1400 today.The Quote"MAGIC 58f) I talked about was for sulphers, olives-their preferred hatching temps on the Michigan Rivers.

BUT.......WHERE ARE THE DRAKES????

After being out again last night in the stifling heat and waiting till dark-nothing!

So in a panic I did a little research and also conducted a conference call with the bug doctor-Johnny Miller on the West Branch of the world famous wild trout Delaware system. He is pulling his thick hair out also since they've had no rain like us, the main stretch of the Big D hit 85 F- lower West Branch near Hancock hit 74 F-THESE RIVERS RUN IN THE UPPER 40'S-LOW 50'S F ALL SUMMER! His green drakes are running late-hatches have shut down etc. just like we had the last few days.Their flows are 350 cfs-low-low-cause the New York City reservoir system is holding water back even that the dams are at 100% capacity and they are letting wild trout die because of their absolute foolishness! We have a summer home up there and I spend a good amount of time fishing the Catskill Tail Waters, so I'm concerned in a big way!

BUT-back to the Muskegon. John and I have found 62 degrees F water temp to be the magic number for gray drakes to start emergence. Since the nymphs migrate to the shorelines to emerge, they are not too fond of hot air temps- their best emergence is in those cooler wetter environments-they don't like to crawl up 90 degree banks and grass.

ALSO......if you look at water temps on Croton USGS, night time lows have still been significantly cold.WHY such cold water? Remember the first two weeks of May- frost every night for weeks and 20 and 30 degree air temps?- I remember the heat running and scrapping frost off the boat every morning still chasing steelhead up till the 20th!

SO LOOK AT THE GRAPH

Sunday-May 23rd-14 C-57 F
Mon.-15 C-59F
Tue.15 C-59 F
Wed 15.5 C-60F

SO DESPITE THE HEAT, THE COLDER NIGH TIME FLOWS HAVE NEGATED HEATING DURING THE DAY!

Still 80's through the weekend and thunder storms on Monday- next week in the 70's and 50's at night.

ALSO..if you looked at NOAA and their long term summer forecast released lat Friday, you are probably shocked!

For Midwest including all of Michigan to South Dakota-down to northern Texas and east to Indiana, a colder and wetter then normal weather pattern is predicted for JUNE,JULY AND AUGUST- WOULDN'T THAT BE NICE AFTER THIS PUTRID HEAT !

All in all, I'm keeping my fingers crossed and burning candles.

On paper it makes sense- any night now will be the key-WE JUST NEED SOME SEMBLANCE OF NORMAL WEATHER IF THAT IS POSSIBLE ANY MORE!!!