ADDENDUM TO PART II- SMOLTING- STEELHEAD PROGNOSIS 2016

                          ( an aggressive little Skamania steelhead smolt that will crush anything that comes its way)

In my attempt to define my reasoning why I think this fall should have an excellent fall run based on previous years data, I failed to factor one important variable into my equation- smolting success of river emigration.

Year class development and successful % ratios of returning adults vs. smolts stocked or wildly reproduced depends on the relative ease and success they have on making it back to the big lake. Long river systems with hydro dams and multiple larger predators like the Muskegon/St. Joe etc. will see smolts become dinner for the varied predators they have. Larger trout, salmon, pike, bass, musky- plus avian predation and diving birds like mergansers will gobble up smolts like pistachio nuts.

THE BEAUTY OF FLOODS AND STAINED WATER AT JUST THE RIGHT TIME

The spring of 2014 saw 100 year devastating flooding of Michigan Great Lakes rivers, along with others in Ontario and New York/OH/PA. ( I know it well since I lost my Yamaha jet boat to the flood while I was doing Beau Beasley's Virginia Fly Fishing and Wine Festival!)

(Muskegon at Croton Dam)

( Water ate New Bridge- bridge normally 12/14 feet above water- pontoon boat jammed against it along with docks and other debris)

In April 2014, 63,000 wild Michigan strain steelhead smolts were stocked on the Muskegon

Newaygo	Muskegon River - PINE STREET (12N 11W 19)	Rainbow trout	Michigan	4/21/2014 12:30:00 PM	11000	7.13	State Plant	none
Newaygo	Muskegon River - PINE STREET (12N 11W 19)	Rainbow trout	Michigan	4/22/2014 12:20:00 PM	44069	7.09	State Plant	none
Newaygo	Muskegon River - PINE STREET (12N 11W 19)	Rainbow trout	Michigan	4/25/2014 10:00:00 AM	6284	7.24	State Plant	none

This occurred right during  the peak of the flooding. Couple that with 50-70%wild reproduced smolts from the tributaries and main river, you have the perfect conditions for quick imprinting and migration in a high, stained water situation, where predators -both aquatic and avian have very little chance seeing these fast moving silvery sardines in water with next to zero visibility. The Pere Marquette/Grand/Joe/Manistee, and other NY/WI/OH/PA /Ont. rivers had similar conditions

One big factor many don't factor in, is the shoreline visibility in the big lakes. The entire  shoreline of Lake Michigan had one enormous brown stain plume of water visible by satellites from space , emanating from the swollen stained rivers, which makes predation on smolts just the much harder.

BOTTOM LINE 

2016 fall will see these prime 2/3 year old year class returns from this ideal smolting escapement of the floods. Lower, clearer spring waters tends to see high smolt mortality due to the ease of predation, BUT!, most importantly from trout fisherman worm dunkers that catch smolts out the yin/yang and just rip the worms out of their bleeding mouths and toss them in belly-up ( careless spinner and fly guys do the same- note the word -careless!)

WHY TYPE 3 REGULATIONS ARE CRITICAL IN PROTECTING STEELHEAD SMOLTS- NOT THE 10 INCH REGS

( Here is a gorgeous Michigan strain steelhead smolt at 15 inches that decided not to smolt and sat out /red shirted the smolting process for a year)

Over my past twenty years of being a steelhead /trout/salmon guide, I can't tell you how prevalent it is to catch smolts that are pushing the 12-16 inch range that just decided not to smolt for a year- genetic and ecosystem variables are in play. If they are not smolting at just that magic time when the smolting 'synergy' takes place with that year class, they will remain in the river for a year/sometimes two. They look very silvery. Often it happens on the Muskegon/Manistee/P.M. due to low water conditions and a very abundant food source- i.e.: sucker spawn, heavy drake /hex hatches etc. , where the attitude is , " hell , I have it good here-lots of food, why move!", comes into play for the fish.

ONE MORE THOUGHT ON 2016 SALMON RUN

( image taken October 2013 in my home Gray Drake pool of hundreds of large Chinook salmon staging off the dock- 2013 saw an amazing epic run!)

2013 saw an amazing spawning run of salmon on the Muskegon and other Great Lakes rivers. These eggs hatched as fry in the spring of 2014 and smolted during the 100 year flood of 2014. This fall should see these smolts return as 3 -salt adults- if you consider the summer they spent in 2014 in the salt/big lake as a foraging year.

END

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Posted in: chinook salmon sac fry , gray drake lodge , Great Lakes steelhead , muskegon river fly fishing , muskegon steelhead , steelhead smolts

THE GREAT LAKES CRYSTAL BALL 2016- PART II- STEELHEAD

OVERVIEW
   The only thing steelheaders have to fear is their own fears themselves ... paranoia, greed, immediate gratification and an over expectation attitude behavior fueling it. Let's face it, these fish have been loved to death. And,  have seen an amazing two decade "wild" fluctuation in catch ratios. From the insane double digit days of "steelhead alley", to insane sizes of over-fed steelhead on alewives in the 199/2000 cusp, to days of slim pickings on Erie tribs, diminishing sizes everywhere due to lack of forage base, exotic predators and overfishing- oh!, dont forget the see-saw ride of global climate change and freezing over of all the Great Lakes into one giant iceberg (2015)- to the hottest lake temperatures ever recorded this summer will bestow. 

The steelhead's worst enemy is politics( state /province and federal agencies trying to please too many at the victim of the fish themselves) and modern google/apple technology, that has created insatiable, immediate gratification 'monsters' out of all steelheaders- not to mention the death knell of the 'numbers game'. 'Too much information too fast and NOW", has taken the charm, mystique, 'fish of a thousand casts' romance out of the true old glory days of McMillan/Combs/Waller etc., when each steelhead was earned and admired- not insisted upon! Guides/outfitters/lodges, trying to make a living  thru all this mess are also to blame ( me included!). Fast acting social media/blogs/real time/steelhead sites etc.,  take that romantic mystery hunt out of the search for the elusive chrome wanderer. 
Enough of the pulpit! - thank you for indulging me, but I think you know my gist of it. Everyone just relax, enjoy being on the river, forget about the numbers- like the old days when you caught "one" steelhead was a BIG DEAL!

PROGNOSIS-LOOKING GOOD!

The fluctuating and constantly changing forage base of the Great Lakes is only favoring the eventual dominance of steelhead as the apex predator. The downturn of the alewives that kings are 'so hardwired to' ( yes steelhead will gorge on them if they are there!), but their preference for multi-foraging appetites allows them the comfort of  a slow attacking scavenging trout that will eat almost anything. Gobies, perch, cisco, smelt, shiners, sculpins, mysis shrimp, sticklebacks are all on the 'up-and up" and filling the steelhead bellies nicely

BIG NEWS-NO CHUMMING ALLOWED IN MICHIGAN WATERS- designated trout/salmon/steelhead rivers

If Michigan's (liberal angling policies) drove you away in search of much better steelhead management waters like the Salmon River in NY, you need not fear any longer. For anglers that were disgusted to see anglers/guides pull up to pools and toss gallons of salmon eggs to turn on an artificial/self indulging fake bite, that will be no more. Effective 'NOW", there is no more chumming, and steelhead will now be able and must chase a fly, nymph, egg, egg sack, intruder, spinner, plug, to have its aggressive needs sparked. That was a big move and all are now on an equal playing field and must earn and enjoy each fish in a classic old school way- just say'in!

WINTER RUN STEEL

Given the size of some of the salmon being caught in the big lake this summer, their side-by side predators- winter steelhead, should show some amazing growth rates and sizes- also given the fact that they are multi- foraging beasts- it should be an amazing fall run which we shall soon see .

Also, given the massive increase in native and exotic shrimp, Hexagenia  hatches, emerald shiner/perch and sculpin populations , these will give the fish extra poundage.

SUMMER STEELHEAD

The verdict isn't really concluded and out yet on the summer run of 2016-  but it has been brutally disappointing. Yes I have managed to find fish, but nothing like years past. The big problem is/was the hellish heat wave of 2016, coupled with epic droughts, than a flood. We only had 'ONE'- lake thermal cold conversion all summer-(second one is going on now and seeing the second wave of fresh migration. The month of September( trending now!) might be epic- stay tuned!

BOTTOM LINE

(The fall runs of 2010/2011 were the best we have seen in 20 years- both on the cusp of hot summers/low water levels, warm autumn weather and a "sleeper bumper crop of alweives' we are now just seeing in 2016 in some lake areas.( this image October 20th, 2010- water levels were bloody low and warm- chumming was illegal that year btw)

Going strictly by my 20 years of keeping accurate records/temps/catch rates /migration timing etc., I'm predicting an amazing fall for several reasons( ain't guide talk :).

1.Looking back at epic fall runs like the ones in 2010/2011, they had hot summers/ low water autumns with only a trickle of water. Lake temperatures were warm. The warmer temps leaves the " window of run' migration opportunity opened longer into December. A very cold quick winter arrival will take longer to build up due to warm water levels.

2. Warmer water will keep steelhead out deeper with more foraging opportunities- cold waters spread the bait out and thus the fish hunt harder and less fruitful

3. Better size and abundance of salmon mean less targeting of steelhead by charters- this year charters have done well on salmon concentrated on forage based schools of prey.

BUT!!!...in the end, we shall see!- least I can do is give you my prognosis - still much, much, much better than last year!- get out and enjoy a day on the river and  learn to become better and more caring steelheaders- it's more fun that way! ( for more reading- lots more info here- just say'in)

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Posted in: gray drake lodge , Great Lakes steelhead , Great Lakes summer steelhead , michigan steelhead , Muskegon River steelhead , Selectivity book , steelhead dreams , summer skamania steelhead , winter steelhead fly fishing

BIG!....IS THE WORD FOR THIS FALL'S 2016 CHINOOK RUN!

What has been caught out in the big lake- both Michigan and Ontario this summer has been very large Chinook and Coho salmon. Some first arrivals in the P.M. and Manistee have seen a few very large fish. Now the big ?....what will be the numbers and duration of the 2016 salmon run be- stay tuned!- with a warm fall, we will see them trickle in for a long period- One coho caught in a big lake tournament went 19 pounds!...that is 'Huuuge' by coho standards- mysis shrimp ( both native and exoctics and alewife numbers apperaed to be better than thought, and alewife # that were 'maybe a little understated?...maybe? ( just sayin!), seem to be contributing positively. Large kings are being caught of the Wisconsin coast and NY/Ont. sides of Lake Ontario- hold on once water temps cool off more favorable- lots of optimism here!

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Posted in: chinook salmon , coho salmon , gray drake lodge , great lakes king salmon , MICHIGAN SALMON , muskegon salmon